Russian flows to the EU drop below 100 mcm/d, their lowest in our records. this compares with over 300 mcm/d at the beginning of April and an average of over 470 mcm/d back in 2019.
The supply cuts over the rouble dispute, followed by the steep cuts via Nord Stream slashed Russian flows to the EU to just above 100 mcm/.
Today, with the start of maintenance works on TurkStream, flows to the EU are set to dip below the 100 mcm/d.
Notably, Gazprom did not reroute any TurkStream or Nord Stream volumes to the Ukrainian transit route, despite available spare capacity.
With Nord Stream and Norwegian annual maintenance around the corner, the supply picture might tighten further up in July.
What is your view? How low can Russian gas flow this summer? Any further downside risks?
Source: Greg Molnar (LinkedIn)
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