The uncertainty of French nuclear power availability

French winter power contracts are notoriously inflated by a huge risk premium (though it has shrunk a lot over the last few days), arguably because of market fear around future nuclear availability. But what about the contracts of neighbouring countries? According to findings by ICIS, unlike their French equivalent, the Q1 24 contracts of other main European countries are unresponsive to developments around French nuclear, show much less volatility, and are mainly driven by natural gas price movements.