Natural gas and the economy: not all energy shocks are the same

Unlike oil, gas represents an unknown from a macroeconomic perspective. There is scant evidence on how demand and supply factors affect gas prices, or on the influence that gas prices have on inflation and economic activity. Furthermore, the gas market has a number of peculiar features that could in principle affect the propagation of the shock… Negative supply shocks are stagflationary and their effects materialize over far longer horizons than those of oil supply shocks. This pattern is consistent with the structural features of the gas market, and it suggests that European economies are still grappling with the large price […]

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