Balticconnector: market impact and outlook for the rest of winter 2023-24

This paper explores the impact of the outage on the Finnish and Baltic gas markets, focusing on Finland as the most-affected country in the region. The paper’s main contention is that through the quick actions of both traders and infrastructure operators, a worst-case scenario in which gas supply is so scarce that customers are cut off has likely been averted, as the sendout capacity at Finland’s Inkoo LNG terminal is sufficient to cover peaks in demand. As a reminder, GasGrid Finland retains the aim of bringing the Balticconnector back into operation in April 2024.