Although 2021 is just gaining momentum, natgas market has already set a number of records. Platts JKM price achieved $32.49/MMBtu for the first time ever on 12 January, while a few days earlier, LNG shipping has hit a new high with one of the vessels having been chartered at $350k a day. European gas market has not lagged far behind.
The occupancy rate of the regional UGSs was decreasing on average by 0.77 percentage point per day in the first two weeks of this month, the absolute highest for the period from 1 to 14 January. The previous record was established in 2017, when the aggregated filling level of European UGS went down by 0.72pp a day. Over the last three years, the daily rate did not exceed 0.47pp.
The average withdrawal rate will obviously not be as high as 0.77pp for the remaining part of winter. However, even under the ‘conservative’ scenario based on withdrawals from 15 January to 31 March in the previous nine years, European storages will be less than 34pc full at the beginning of Q2. In other words, gas stocks can decline by nearly another 30 bcm.
Narrower Winter 21-22 premium to Summer 21 is a further indication of players’ concern over the market balance in a few months’ time.
Source: Yakov Grabar
See original post by Yakov at LinkedIn.
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