The outgoing year has made it possible to rethink many things, from the way we work to the activities we spend our free time on. With regard to the natgas market, 2020 has shown what the increased price volatility really is.
Never in our wildest dreams could we imagine that the TTF DA contract would collapse more than fourfold in May as compared to the start of the year, while the rise of about 470pc would be recorded in 2H 2020.
Rapidly changing market conditions have generated an unprecedented level of uncertainty among the players. Even the one-off price hikes at TTF in 2012, 2013 and 2018 are not as significant in relative terms as the growth in the market during the latter part of this year.
Although 2020 is coming to an end, price fluctuations still prevail. Over the last two weeks alone, the TTF DA initially declined by more than 1 EUR/MWh in one day but registered a DoD growth of 1.20 EUR/MWh after just a few trading sessions.
The new year starts in a situation of colder temperatures in Europe and tight LNG supply. However, each of these factors can reduce its impact or even reverse quite quickly, which restricts the predictability of price movements at least in early 2021 as well.
Source: Yakov Grabar
See original post by Yakov on LinkedIn.