PREMIUM CONTENT
European gas and power markets: supply and demand forecasts for 2024/25
Detailed presentation covering European gas and power markets. It covers key recent price drivers, gas supply and demand preview for summer 2024 & what to look out for in winter 2024/25.
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Competitiveness of European energy-intensive industries
Deindustrialisation of Europe has already started. The number of EU firms in the Fortune Global 500 has shrunk and labour productivity growth has also declined significantly. Sectors including aluminium, refining, steel, and ammonia have already started deindustrialising: Europe’s share of worldwide aluminium production fell from 30% in 2000 to 5% in 2022, while the EU has lost 2/3 of its primary aluminium production since 2008. Moreover, 70% of ammonia production capacity was curtailed during the peak energy prices in 2022.
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Stalemate on Europe’s imports of Russian LNG
For the past two years, there have been unsuccessful attempts to push politicians to ban Russian LNG imports. The situation has hit a stalemate, with importing Member States willing to reject Russian gas if EU-wide sanctions are applied, overruling concerns about potential gas shortages. A Russian LNG price cap policy could slash export earnings 60% on 2023 levels and leverages Russia’s huge reliance on Western owned or insured LNG tankers to force down the price of its gas exports.
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Gas on gas priced share of LNG imports reaches 50% of all LNG trade.
After record gas prices in 2022, 2023 saw prices fall back, but they remained the second highest recorded since 2005. The total gas-on-gas priced share of LNG imports nearly doubled between 2016 and 2023 reaching just under 50% of all LNG trade.
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INFRASTRUCTURE
European gas withdrawal at almost record low levels
Between November 1st and March 31st, the winter of 2023/24 saw a net withdrawal of 44.0 billion cubic meters. This...
European gas: is the problem solved?
Mild weather, ample natural gas imports and healthy gas stockpiles kept European gas prices in check in March. The EU...
The future of Russian gas in Europe
The European Union has committed to phasing out all imports of fossil fuels from Russia by 2027. While sanctions have...
European gas market reports, presentations & analysis.
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UPCOMING EVENTS
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GAS PRICES
TTF price soars by almost 10% to near €30/MWh
Will European gas prices fall in the future?
RUSSIA
Ukraine will not negotiate gas deal with Russia
