European spot gas prices were up overall yesterday, particularly in the UK after the Interconnector resumed operations.
Near curve prices were also up, supported by technical rebound. The rise was more moderate for far curve prices as coal prices (+0.18% for API2 1st nearby prices, -1.72% for Cal 2023 prices) exerted downward pressure.
On the pipeline supply side, Russian flows weakened yesterday, averaging 159 mm cm/day, compared to 181 mm cm/day on Friday. By contrast, Norwegian flows rebounded to 274 mm cm/day on average, compared to 249 mm cm/day on Friday.
Note that in Norway, the unions and the Norwegian Oil & Gas Association announced yesterday a deal had been reached in overnight talks, averting an oil and gas workers’ strike.
At the close, NBP ICE July 2022 prices increased by 7.470 p/th (+5.11%), to 153.71 p/th, equivalent to €61.171/MWh. TTF ICE July 2022 prices were up by 94 euro cents (+1.14%), closing at €83.402/MWh. On the far curve, TTF ICE Cal 2023 prices increased by 47 euro cents (+0.59%), closing at €80.353/MWh.
In Asia, JKM spot prices dropped by 4.32%, to €73.905/MWh ; July 2022 prices dropped by 0.56%, to €75.518/MWh; August 2022 prices increased by 0.50%, to €76.436/MWh.
TTF ICE July 2022 prices traded again yesterday in a narrow range on either side of the 5-day average and the 1-year average.
This morning, they seem to want to choose their direction, rising above the 1-year average. The additional drop in Russian supply could support this rise.
But, with comfortable stock levels and Asia JKM prices at much lower levels, the upside potential seems limited, with R1 as a strong resistance level.