In H2 2023, European gas demand is likely to remain 10-20% below the five-year trend. Although the market is trading at a two-year low, prices are still above the long-term average. The ICIS TTF front month averaged €44.11/MWh across H1 2023, a yearly drop of 56% but nearly three times the 2017-2021 average for the period. From an industrial demand perspective, prices may still be too high to facilitate an uptick in consumption. Some of the largest gas buyers in the chemical industry have already saidtheir output could remain pared back until 2025, suggesting ongoing weak gasoff-take.