After the Gazprom-Naftogaz arbitration: commerce still entangled in politics

The decline of the Russo-Ukrainian gas relationship will continue. From 2020, transit of Russian gas across Ukraine will continue, but at much lower volumes. Direct sales probably will not. By the mid2020s, all transit could cease. The only realistic possibilities of this changing depend on an improvement of political relationships, which in turn probably depend on a significant shift in the situation in eastern Ukraine. By: Simon Pirani (OIES)