The winter goes on: European storage levels fell below 50% last week, further deteriorating Europe’s gas supply picture amidst the second half of the winter season.
European storage levels stand about 25% below their 5year average, translating into a storage deficit of 16 bcm in absolute terms.
Low opening stocks at the beginning of the heating season, together with stronger storage withdrawals since November (up by 7% compared to their 5y average) are weighing on inventory levels.
Assuming average withdrawal levels for the rest of the heating season, storage levels could fall to just 18% of their working capacity, leaving Europe vulnerable to late cold spells, the ones which bites in late Feb/early March…
What is your view? How will Europe’s gas picture evolve in the coming weeks? TTF has been rather bearish, with flexible LNG providing some relief to the European gas balance… although flows from Russia are now at multi-year lows adding to winter volatility.
Source: Greg Molnar (LinkedIn)
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