European gas demand dropped by a record 45 bcm through the 2022/23 heating season, amidst milder weather, energy savings, stronger renewables and lower gas use in industry.
Distribution network related demand, most of which is concentrated in the residential
and commercial sectors, dropped by 17% (close to 20 bcm).
Notably, the milder weather conditions accounted for around 40-45% of the demand drop, with the rest driven by other factors, such as energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching in rural areas, behavioural changes and rising affordability issues for the most vulnerable households.
More policy attention is needed on the latter point.
Gas-to-power demand dropped by 15% (or 10 bcm) amidst lower electricity consumption (down by an estimated 5%) and stronger renewables output, including higher wind & hydro.
Industrial gas demand continued to be down by an estimated 20%, with most of the decline concentrated in Q4 2022.
The current lower gas price environment is expected to provide some support for gas use in industry, especially in Q2 and Q3 of the year.
But ramping back production takes time.
What is your view? How will gas demand evolve in the EU through the gas summer?
Could we see some coal-to-gas switching in the coming months?
What is your take on industrial gas demand?
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