Oops I did it again: European gas demand fell by again by close to 25% in November, its steepest decline this year, with a drop of 13 bcm in absolute terms.
Unseasonably mild weather, especially in the first half of the month, depressed residential and commercial demand, down by over 30%.
Lower electricity demand together with higher wind output, weighed on gas burn in the power sector, which was down by 30% compared to last year.
Industrial gas demand, which suffered the most so far this year, fell less steeply, by an estimated 5-10%.
There are two reasons for this: (1) high gas prices already depressed industrial gas demand last Nov, so our base number is lower than average; (2) prices moderating down from their summer highs provided support to certain industries, such as fertilizers, which are now ramping back production.
This lower than expected demand is protecting our gas storages, which are still 93% full -well-above their 5y average.
However, a colder December could quickly erase these gains, without targeted gas savings…
What is your view? How will gas demand evolve during the deep winter?
Source: Greg MOLNAR