The European electricity markets prices fell in a generalised way in the third week of the year, favoured by the recovery of the temperatures and the increase in wind energy production. However, the electricity futures increased.
The gas and CO2 futures fell from their maximum values but they remain high. It is expected that in the fourth week of the year the wind energy production will decrease and the demand will increase, causing the recovery of the markets prices.
Electricity demand
The electricity demand decreased during the week of January 18 compared to the previous week in most of the European markets, due to the increase in average temperatures between 2.1 °C and 4.3 °C. The most notable drops occurred in the markets of Portugal, France and Spain, which were 7.1%, 5.3% and 5.2% respectively. However, the Italian market had little variation from week to week, with an increase of 0.1%.
For the week of January 25, the AleaSoft‘s demand forecasting indicates that demand will recover with slight increases in most markets. On the other hand, the demand of Spain is expected to decline during the week.
European electricity markets
The week of January 18, the prices of all the European electricity markets analysed at AleaSoft decreased compared to those of the previous week. The greatest drop in prices, of 46%, was that of the UK N2EX market, followed by that of the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal, of 37%. On the other hand, the lowest price decrease was that of the IPEX market of Italy, of 10%. In the rest of the markets, the price drops were between 16% of the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands and 23% of the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium.
In the third week of January, the highest weekly average prices were those of the United Kingdom and Italy, of €71.11/MWh and €60.80/MWh, respectively. While the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries had the lowest average, of €39.45/MWh. In the rest of the markets, the prices were between €44.38/MWh of the German market and €53.03/MWh of the French market.
Regarding the hourly prices, the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal reached the minimum hourly price so far this year, of €1.95/MWh, at the hours 4 and 5 of Sunday, January 24. In addition, on January 23 and 24, the MIBEL market presented the lowest daily prices in all the analysed markets. The lowest daily price, of €27.50/MWh, was that of Saturday, January 23, which was the lowest in this market since the last week of 2020.
During the third week of the year, the increase in wind energy production in Europe and in solar energy production in countries such as Germany and France, together with the recovery of the temperatures, favoured the decrease in European electricity markets prices.
AleaSoft‘s price forecasting indicates that the week of January 25 the prices will recover in most markets, influenced by the general decline in wind energy production and the increase in demand in most markets.
Source: AleaSoft, January 25, 2021
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