It looks as if this year’s weather is paying off the debts accumulated during the winters of ‘19 and ‘20 when the European gas market lost a sizeable portion of heating demand.
Although the winter has already passed, it is still early to disregard the temperature factor. This can be seen clearly in the Champions League quarter-final between Bayern and PSG (well done Neymar & Mbappé, by the way 😉 ) that was played on 7 Apr amid heavy snowfall and below-freezing temperatures.
As the weather was getting colder, heating demand in NWE and CEE jumped by more than 40pc since late Mar, forcing players to interrupt net injections into the storages. Approximately 850 mcm was withdrawn from the regional facilities over the period from 6 to 9 Apr. The figure could have been even higher if the weather had been less windy at that time.
There is nothing unusual about the weather having a significant influence on the gas market during the shoulder period. But it is exactly the weather that acts as a ‘black swan’ event this year, having made waves in Asia and the US in Jan-Feb and continuing to make its presence felt in Europe for the fourth month in a row.
Source: Yakov Grabar
See original post by Yakov at LinkedIn.