Russian gas production could drop by 100 bcm in the coming years according to the latest forecast of Russia’s Ministry of Economy.
The conservative scenario reflects the rapidly worsening export opportunities of the country: while piped flows to China are set to ramp-up to 38 bcm/y by 2025, this will be more than offset by the decline in exports to the European Union, as the bloc aims to phase-out Russian gas as quickly as possible.
Notably, the forecast foresees only a 7 MT increase in LNG exports by 2025 both in its base case. this suggests that only Train 1 of Arctic LNG-2 will come online.
Building-up new export channels to China, such as Power of Siberia-2 would take several years while there is still no firm contract from China underpinning such project.
What is your view? What is the outlook for Russian gas and LNG in the coming years?
Source: Greg MOLNAR