The gas gap: Europe could face a gap of 30 bcm during the summer 2023 and fail to fill its storages to adequate levels if no immediate action is taken.
While gas prices fell by over 30% through October and storages are now filled up to 95%, we are certainly not out of the woods yet.
There are several risks which could put further pressure on the European and global gas markets:
(1) Russian flows are expected to drop between 35-60 bcm in 2023;
(2) a recovery of China’s LNG imports to their 2021 levels would severely limit Europe’s access to any additional LNG, considering that LNG supply would increase by just 20 bcm in 2023.
This in turn could result in a gas gap of 30 bcm during the 2023 injection season, when storage sites are filled up.
Without these 30 bcm, storage sites would be filled just up to 65% or their capacity by 2023/24 heating season, well-below the levels needed for a safe and secure winter.
Our latest Report, Never Too Early to Prepare for Next Winter provides a detailed analysis of all the different factors which will at play next summer, and why we should act as soon as possible on gas savings.